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Spring 2022 saw a series of firsts when it comes to onshore wind
and renewable energy's share of the US generation stack, data show,
but the wind sector's pace of growth is set to slow at a time when
observers say it needs to be heading in the opposite direction for
climate goals to be met.
On 29 March, wind turbines in the Lower 48 states produced 2,017
GWh of power, making wind the second-largest source of generation
that day, behind only natural gas, according to the US Energy
Information Administration's (EIA) Hourly Electric Grid Monitor.
Wind garnered a larger slice of the pie than coal-fired and
nuclear generation separately on other days earlier in 2022, and
then surpassed both sources on a single day for the first time on
29 March, the EIA said.
In the US, wind speeds, and correspondingly, the output of wind
farms, tend to peak in the spring, government data show. Wind's share of the generation stack also
often reaches new highs at this time of year as competition from
alternate sources of electricity is less fierce.
Power demand tends to be lowest in the spring and fall months,
which are known in the US as the shoulder seasons, so some
generators—including owners of both nuclear and coal
units—reduce their output or schedule maintenance at this
time.
California
A few days after the nationwide first, the California
Independent System Operator (ISO) set a new record on 3 April, when
97.6% of electricity on the grid came from renewable energy, it said. The brief peak broke the
previous record of 96.4% set on 27 March. Before that, the grid's
record for clean power was 94.5%, set on 21 April 2021, the ISO
said. Wind tends provide about a quarter of the California
renewable load, with solar producing over 60%.
California added the second-most clean power capacity of any US
state in 2021 at almost 2.7 GW, and also ranked second in
operational capacity terms at just over 22.9 GW, according to the
American Clean Power Association (ACP).
To California's east, the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which
covers parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South
Dakota, and neighboring states, and the Electric Reliability
Council of Texas (ERCOT) both reported records on 29 March for
wind's share of the generation stack. SPP reported wind penetration of
88.5% on 29 March 29, and ERCOT said wind covered 67.2% of its
system's needs for the same day.
The EIA said it does not expect wind to surpass either
coal-fired or nuclear generation for any month in 2022 or 2023,
based on its latest forecasts. It may not take much
longer though, observers say.
Texas, which headed ACP's operational renewable capacity at the
end of 2021 and most capacity added during the year tables, burns
more coal and emits more CO2 and sulfur dioxide than any other
state in the US.
But academics at Rice University—located in the state's
energy capital, Houston—believe all the state's
coal-fired capacity could be replaced by wind and solar. There's
already enough wind and solar projects in ERCOT's interconnection
queue to do so, they said in research published earlier this
spring. In addition, "it's not always windy and not always sunny,
but it's almost always windy or sunny somewhere in Texas," they
said.
On a nationwide basis, renewable energy sources' share of annual
US generation will rise from 20% in 2021, to 22% in 2022, and to
23% in 2023, as a result of continuing increases in solar and wind
generating capacity, the EIA said in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
report, released 12 April.
This increase in renewable generation will lead to a smaller
slice of the pie for natural gas- and coal-fired generation, it
said. Gas units' share is expected to decrease from 37% in 2021 to
35% in both 2022 and 2023 while the share of coal will fall from
23% in both 2021 and 2022 to 21% by 2023, EIA said.
Temporary slowdown for wind
However, the pace of growth in the wind sector is set to slow in
the next couple of years, the government agency said. EIA estimates
the US added 14 GW of new wind capacity in 2021, but only expects
10 GW of new wind capacity will come online in 2022 and 4 GW in
2023, it said in the latest STEO. The pace of growth is set to slow
because a tax credit is currently set to expire at the end of 2022
and much-publicized offshore wind auctions will not net significant
installations for some years.
As a result, if more government support for the wind sector
isn't forthcoming in short order (in a country that ranks second
overall in installed capacity globally), then the long-term impact
will be palpable, at least the way one trade association tells
it.
In its 17th annual flagship report, Global Wind Report 2022, the Global Wind
Energy Council (GWEC) forecasts that by 2030 less than two-thirds
of the global wind energy capacity required for a 1.5 degrees
Celsius and net-zero pathway will be in place, "effectively
condemning us to miss our climate goals."
A four-fold increase in the pace
of the global wind fleet buildout is now necessary to avoid a
temperature increase of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with
pre-industrial levels, as the Paris Agreement seeks, GWEC said.
Spring in offshore wind sector's step
Even without the tax credit, a much larger part of the US'
future wind capacity growth involves plans to add offshore
facilities alongside the existing and future onshore fleet.
The Biden administration plans to build 30 GW of
offshore capacity by 2030, but will need a supply chain revolution
to do so. In March, a group of government agencies led by the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory released the first of two reports laying out
a roadmap to create that supply chain.
Another solution to the problem GWEC envisions may be
collaboration between erstwhile rivals, which is already beginning.
On 1 April, Danish wind turbine manufacturing giant Vestas
inked a deal with a unit of its biggest rival, GE Renewable
Energy. Vestas said that "in the continuous journey to develop the
wind energy supply chain and produce main components close to key
markets," the company had signed an agreement for LM Wind Power to
produce onshore turbine blades in Brazil.
Spring 2022 also saw the Department of Interior ramp up efforts
to kickstart offshore wind through its US Bureau of Ocean Energy
Management (BOEM) unit.
An auction of lease areas off New
York and New Jersey by BOEM 23-25 February produced multiple firsts
for offshore wind in the country, including a $1.1-billion winning
bid by a German energy giant making a splash in the arena. The
lease sale saw the loftiest overall high bid total for an auction
of any energy development rights in American waters since 2008.
Then BOEM completed an environmental review and Interior on 25
March announced an auction for two
lease areas off the coast of the Carolinas on 11 May. The lease
areas cover 110,091 acres in the Carolina Long Bay area that, if
developed, could result in at least 1.3 GW of offshore wind energy,
it said.
Across the country, BOEM on 6 April announced the release of a
draft environmental assessment public comment for California's
first offshore wind leases. The Morro Bay Wind Energy Area is
located approximately 20 miles off the central California
coastline, and up to 3 GW of capacity could be on tap there.
Comments are due by 6 May.
But it's not just a government-led movement. Trident Winds, a
Seattle-based developer, said 4 April it submitted an
unsolicited lease request to BOEM for the first floating offshore
wind farm off the coast of Washington State. The 2-GW Olympic Wind
project would be sited 43 miles off the coast of the Olympic
Peninsula.