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A reshuffle at the helm of key ministries by Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau is raising activists' hopes of a tough Canadian
stance at the COP26 climate change meeting, especially Steven
Guibeault being handed the environment and climate change
brief.
Guilbeault, previously heritage minister, becomes Canada's point
man for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change talks in
Scotland, replacing Jonathan Wilkinson, who takes the tiller at
Natural Resources Canada (NRC)—a shift that also won
plaudits.
But it is Guilbeault, formerly a senior Greenpeace campaigner
and before that the founder of the largest environmental
organization in his and Trudeau's home province of Quebec, whose
appointment garnered the most attention and raised extraction
sector fears his boss sought immediately to calm.
The David Suzuki Foundation, a nonprofit, said the reshuffle
could augur "concrete leadership" from the Trudeau government at
COP26, including raising the potential for Canada joining the
Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, increased support for developing
countries in tackling the climate challenge, and more ambitious
timelines for domestic emission reduction measures.
Guilbeault has a tough task on his hands across the Atlantic
Ocean, because, as COP26 President Alok Sharma told a United Nations Educational, Scientific
and Cultural Organization conference 12 October, that the world
hasn't done enough since the Paris Agreement to reduce
emissions.
A fact the UN Environment Programme emphasized on 25 October,
arguing in its latest Emissions Gap Report 2021: The
Heat Is On report that even with new and updated climate
commitments, the world was on track for a global temperature rise
of at least 2.7 degrees Celsius this century, far beyond the aims
of the Paris Agreement.
Faith in "Green Jesus"
Entering the House of Commons two years ago, Guilbeault is a
"well-respected leader from the environmental movement," the David
Suzuki Foundation said. He would take a pivotal role in quickly
delivering on Liberal Party promises to make the climate a top
priority in the coming parliamentary session, it said.
There's plenty on Guilbeault's plate at home, and Keith Stewart,
senior energy strategist at Greenpeace Canada, expressed faith in
the one-time theology student who was nicknamed "Green Jesus" by a
newspaper in his home province.
"Guilbeault knows the file, he knows the key players and he
understands just how much is at stake," Stewart said in a
statement. "He's also a practical person who knows the rules, which
is important because implementing and raising the Liberal
government's climate commitments is going to take the whole
government pulling hard in the same direction."
Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Institute for Climate
Choices, told Net-Zero Business Daily that Guilbeault's leadership
would be crucial in transitioning Canada to a "prosperous,
low-carbon future."
Guilbeault's appointment was no coincidence, with Trudeau well
aware of the response at home and abroad that the change from
Wilkinson would bring, according to one analyst Net-Zero Business
Daily spoke to.
However, in a speech announcing his cabinet 26 October Trudeau
said that the government would bring the same focus and urgency it
brought to combatting the COVID-19 pandemic to fighting climate
change, with plans in Glasgow to challenge the world to cut GHG
emissions even faster.
At an earlier high-profile climate meeting in 2021, the Leaders
Summit on Climate organized by US President Joe Biden, Trudeau
pledged to reduce Canada's emissions by 40% to 45% compared with
2005 levels by 2030, before reaching net zero in 2050. The previous
2030 target was 30%.
Trudeau's instructions for Guilbeault in his mandate letter will
prove key going forward, observers say. Trudeau was the first
Canadian prime minister to publish ministers' marching orders;
previously mandate letters remained private. Much of what ministers
can do depends on the prime minister, with many observers waiting
to see how long a leash and what priorities Guilbeault will be
handed.
The appointment of a new Cabinet, including Guilbeault,
Wilkinson and his predecessor at NRC Sean O'Regan, followed a snap
election called by Trudeau in September that sought backing for his
economic recovery plan and policies including a clean electricity
standard and reduced subsidies for the oil and natural gas
industry.
IHS Markit Principal Global Risks Advisor John Raines told
Net-Zero Business Daily in the aftermath of the 20 September
election that only brought another minority government that
Trudeau was likely to continue with his established climate change
policy agenda.
The policies can be expected to increase operating expenses for
the hydrocarbon sector, particularly those dependent on
carbon-emission-heavy processes such as the oil sands, said
Raines.
Alberta's worries
The burden for Canada's coming emissions cuts is most likely to
fall on transportation and oil and gas sectors. IHS Markit data
show just over 80% of Canadian power generation is currently
carbon-free, thanks in large part to hydropower, and that figure is
likely to reach nearly 90% by 2050.
Prior to the election, the Liberals promised the public they
would make sure the oil and gas sector's emissions would decline
from current levels at a pace and scale needed to achieve net-zero
by 2050, with five-year targets starting in 2025. In addition,
companies would be required to reduce methane emissions by at least
75% below 2012 levels by 2030.
On 26 October, Trudeau confirmed this commitment. At the same
time, he promised to support workers in the hydrocarbon industries
in keeping and finding jobs.
The oil and gas sector is Canada's biggest source of export
revenue. Crude topped the export charts in 2019, accounting for
15.7% of shipments overseas, while refined products and natural gas
made up a further 5%, according to the open-source Observatory of
Economic Complexity.
Canada is the fourth largest producer of crude and gas in the
world, according to NRC data, and the third largest exporter of
crude. The US buys 90% of Canadian energy exports. The sector's
impact is disproportionate in Alberta compared with other
provinces, with around 49% of all Canadian direct employment in the
energy sector located in the province.
As a result, the talk of ramping down support for the oil and
gas sector and cutting its emissions has raised the hackles of
political leaders there regularly. The reshuffle only elevated
concerns. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney called Guilbeault's
appointment "very problematic" when talking to local reporters and urged him
to be practical rather than "absolutist," especially when it came
to jobs.
Trudeau sought to assuage Kenney and oil and gas workers' fears
when announcing the line-up of his team. Standing in front of the
assembled ministers, he said: "We will be committed to working with
Albertans, to working with people across the energy sector across
the country, as we build the kind of future everyone wants for
their kids and grandkids, with both good jobs, prosperity, and
cleaner air and fresh water."
Wilkinson, a native of neighboring Saskatchewan who on 25
October unveiled a deal to boost
climate financing for developing nations ahead of COP26 alongside
counterparts from the UK and Germany, was seen as less threatening
by Western Canadians, especially with more of a political track
record and a background in private industry, sources said.
The former fisheries minister also has backing from
environmentalists though in his new role as head of NRC.
Greenpeace's Stewart said he was hopeful tapping Wilkinson for the
new brief indicated there would be greater cooperation on climate
action across departments, stereotyping his predecessors as the
"chief advocate" for the oil industry in government circles.
And the David Suzuki Foundation said Wilkinson's history of
leadership on climate and nature would aid a transition to a
"net-zero emissions, nature-positive world." It also pushed for NRC
create national strategy for climate adaptation.
Oil industry seeks common ground
The oil industry, meanwhile, took a diplomatic stance on the
appointments.
"Canadian [oil] producers share the aspiration of Canadians to
find realistic and workable solutions to the challenge of climate
change," Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers CEO Tim
McMillan told Net-Zero Business Daily.
"It will be incredibly important that our industry along with
[Guilbeault and Wilkinson] find common ground to work from to
ensure Canadian resources and innovation remain a part of the
global energy and emissions reduction solution, as well as a
growing source of prosperity for Canadians," he added.
And given the ongoing energy volatility around the
global, McMillan reminded the government how countries were
struggling to provide industries, businesses, and citizens with
affordable and reliable energy. So, he said, with the right policy
environment, Canadian producers can play a significant role in
meeting growing demand while helping to lower global emissions.
The direction on climate matters that Trudeau has and is
expected to take down the line has been more amenable to renewable
power generators, but it wants more.
Brandy Giannetta, vice-president, policy, regulatory and
government affairs, at the Canadian Renewable Energy Association
told Net-Zero Business Daily the trade group was pleased, to date,
with efforts to set more ambitious 2030 climate targets, as well as
commitments to a net-zero electricity system by 2035 and to
net-zero GHG emissions by 2050.
However, Canada will need to decarbonize and significantly
expand electricity production to help reduce GHG emissions in
sectors like transportation, buildings and industry, Giannetta
said. As a result, wind energy, solar energy, and energy storage
needed to be at the core of Canada's efforts to meet its climate
change objectives, she said.
A path to net-zero buildings is a new policy area for the
Trudeau government that will be closely watched, Canadian Gas
Association Vice President of Strategy and Delivery Paul Cheliak
told Net-Zero Business Daily 27 September.