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Global reaction to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change's (IPCC) latest climate assessment was as forceful as the
language of the report itself, as governments and NGOs said the
stark conclusions in the report provide further evidence that broad
and deep responses must be made to avoid the worst impacts of
global warming.
Using terms like "sobering" and "frightening," climate leaders
said the report raises the pressure on the participants at the
November COP26 meeting to produce stronger and more enforceable
measures to reduce global GHG emissions.
Coming less than three months before the COP26 meeting in Glasgow,
Scotland, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
(AR6), "The Physical Science Basis," firmly ties
rising temperatures and more severe weather to human activity.
Also, it indicates that widespread mitigation measures, especially
for the regions that will be most hard-hit by rising temperatures
and sea levels, also will be necessary.
The IPCC called the evidence marshalled by AR6, which included
reviews of more than 14,000 studies, "indisputable." With
information from new studies, the report for the first time singles
out methane emissions as particularly harmful, and it delves in
great detail into regional impacts of climate change.
Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment
Programme, issued a global call to action in a press conference to present the report on 9
August. "We cannot undo the mistakes of the past…. but this
generation can make things right," she said. "Climate change is
here now, but we are also here now. And if we don't act, who
will?"
Weather extremes witnessed in the last couple of months can be
tied to the 1.1 degrees C temperature increase since the
pre-industrial era, said World Meteorological Organization
Secretary-General Petteri Taalas at the press conference. He
referenced record-breaking temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere,
fires in Greece, Turkey, Siberia, and the US West Coast, and "more
water vapor in the atmosphere leading to flooding in Europe and
China."
The report's message is clear, said Alok Sharma, minister of
state in the UK and president of COP26. "The next decade is
decisive; follow the science," he said, as he called on nations to
strengthen their nationally determined contributions under the
Paris Agreement, and to make them binding and enforceable.
After reviewing the key findings of the 3,500-page report, Atul
Arya, IHS Markit senior vice president, energy insight, observed:
"The degree of confidence about the state of the climate and future
projections is now much higher than in previous reports due to
improvements in modeling and more observational data with higher
quality. Climate science is progressing exponentially and not
linearly considering the AR5 report was completed in 2014, just
seven years back."
AR6 findings
AR6 is the first of a series of three IPCC reports, and it
outlines the projected impacts of five emissions scenarios, which
range from achieving net zero or even declining emissions by 2050,
to a doubling of annual emissions, compared with current levels.
AR6 will be followed by two reports to be published in 2022 that
will look at how to adapt to these impacts and how to prevent the
worst-case scenarios.
The IPCC said in the report that it has "high confidence" that
human activities are the main drivers of more frequent and intense
heat, melting glaciers, warmer oceans, and acidification of rain.
"It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere,
ocean, and land," the IPCC said.
Source: IPCC
The global surface temperature has increased in each of the last
four decades. "The likely range of total human-caused global
surface temperature increase from 1850-1900 to 2010-2019 is 0.8°C
to 1.3 degrees C, with a best estimate of 1.07 degrees C," the
report said. "Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that
is unprecedented in at least 2,000 years."
IPCC added: "It is virtually certain that the global upper ocean
(0-700 meters) has warmed since the 1970s and extremely likely that
human influence is the main driver."
The new estimates sped up the point when the world will pass 1.5
degrees C warming to 2040. If emissions are not checked over the
balance of the century, the worst-case scenario in the report says
that temperatures could rise by 4.4 degrees C or more.
Scenario SSP5-8.5 models annual CO2 emissions of approximately
double current levels by 2050, and SSP3-7.0 models doubled CO2
emissions by 2100. Scenario SSP2-4.5 models CO2 emissions stable
until 2050 and then declining to net zero. Scenarios SSP1-1.9 and
SSP1.26 model negative net emissions after 2050.
Source: IPCC
Methane
For the first time, AR6 has a chapter (Chapter 7: "Climate
and Air Quality Responses to Short-lived Climate Forcers in Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways") focused on the impact of methane
emissions, an especially potent GHG that is closely associated with
oil and natural gas production, coal mining, and farming.
Methane levels are now higher than at any point in the past
800,000 years, and IPCC said they account for about 30% of global
warming to date. The report called for "strong, rapid, and
sustained reductions" in methane emissions.
Taking up that finding, US-based NGO EarthWorks called on US
President Joe Biden to order a 65% reduction in methane emissions
by the oil and gas industry by 2025 and to "declare a national
emergency on climate to stop fossil fuel expansion."
The Obama administration passed rules that would reduce methane
emissions from new oil and gas operations by about 43%, but those
rules were held up by legal challenges and overturned by the Trump
administration. Biden has promised to produce new rules, and he
indicated they would be tougher than the Obama plan.
Without speaking about specifics, Jane Lubchenco, deputy
director for climate and environment at the White House Office of
Science and Technology Policy, issued a statement on 9 August: "The
report draws attention to the immediate benefits of significant
reductions in methane, both from an atmospheric concentration point
of view, but also the co-benefits to human health from improved air
quality."
Given the report's comments about methane, Arya predicted an
"acceleration of efforts to reduce methane emissions from both the
energy and agriculture sectors."
Regional impacts
One of the biggest changes since the prior report is that
modeling has improved regional and subregional forecasts. This has
enabled the report's authors to say definitively that incidents
such as the heat wave in Siberia in 2020 and floods in China this
summer are tied to climate change.
"Rapid attribution studies" in which experts are able to connect
weather events such as fires and floods to climate change are "a
remarkable development," said Arya.
The report explained that the impact of warming is uneven across
geographic regions and it accelerates as temperatures rise. "With
every increment of global warming, changes get larger in regional
mean temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture," it said.
As overall temperature gains surpass 1.5 degrees C, temperatures
in the Arctic and high-altitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere
could rise by 3 degrees C. At the same time, precipitation patterns
could change, with the higher latitudes, equatorial Pacific, and
parts of the monsoon regions in Asia receiving 20-40% more annual
rainfall.
The report points out that melting glaciers will affect
practically all regions of the world by adding to rising sea
levels, which in turn increases coastal erosion and elevates storm
surges. IPCC scientists say melting glaciers will have a pronounced
effect in Himalayas, the Hindu Kush, and the Karakoram, which store
60,000 square kilometers of ice and store more water than anywhere
beside the Arctic and the Antarctic.
Water impacts illustrate how wealthier nations must not only
curb their emissions, but also help vulnerable nations respond to
the climate impacts that already are occurring, the report
said.
Looking at water, more than 750 million people currently depend
on the glacier- and snow-fed Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers
for freshwater. By 2050, the World Bank estimates between
1.5 billion and 1.7 billion people in South Asia are projected to
be vulnerable to water scarcity.
For all areas, weather could become more volatile, as
high-intensity events increase in frequency because of a weakening
of the Gulf Stream, which is a current flow in the Atlantic Ocean
that cycles cooler water from south to north and brings rain to
Africa and Europe.
Weather changes can lead to further negative feedback loops,
such as dying forests, according to the report. Both land and ocean
carbon sinks become less effective as the climate warms.
Source: IPCC
Citing recent research, Emily Shuckburgh, a University of
Cambridge climate scientist, who spoke during the press conference,
said that a study published in the journal Nature in
July found that the Amazon is emitting more carbon than it is
absorbing, due primarily to fires set to clear land for farming and
raising cattle.
Reactions
As the host of COP26, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued a
statement. "Today's report makes for sobering reading, and it is
clear that the next decade is going to be pivotal to securing the
future of our planet," he said. "We know what must be done to limit
global warming—consign coal to history and shift to clean
energy sources, protect nature, and provide climate finance for
countries on the frontline."
The scale of those goals highlights the immense task awaiting
COP26 delegates, said Arya. "Keeping [the warming of] global
average temperatures to 1.5 degrees C seems extremely challenging
because of the monumental pace of reduction in carbon emissions
required. This will be the major point of discussion at COP26: how
to balance the developmental needs of emerging economies while
reducing emissions." he said.
Stuart Lemmon, CEO Northern Europe at international climate
consultancy and offsetting project developer, EcoAct, said that the
"change in tone" in this report could help to spur necessary
commitment and action. "Gone is the cautious language and
hesitation around climate models and projections. The message is
loud and clear, climate change is happening, and urgent action
needs to be taken now in order to minimize its devastating
effects," he said.
The G20 nations are responsible for about 80% of global GHG
emissions, and so they have an extra responsibility, said
Sharma.
As the largest economy in the world, the US can step up to be a
leader, said Mitchell Bernard, president of Natural Resources
Defense Council, if Congress "overcome[s] opposition from the
fossil fuel industry and enablers … by passing President Biden's
Build Back Better agenda, which weds an equitable recovery with
climate action."
John Kerry, US special climate envoy, issued a statement: "The
IPCC report underscores the overwhelming urgency of this moment.
The world must come together before the ability to limit global
warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is out of reach."
--Contributions by Amena Saiyid of Net-Zero Business
Daily.
Posted 09 August 2021 by Kevin Adler, Chief Editor