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The options to at least halve global GHG emissions by 2030 in
all sectors are available, but the cost will be steep, according to
the latest report from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) working group on climate mitigation.
Limiting global warming will require major transitions in the
energy sector in particular, said the 84 scientists, collectively
known as Working Group III, who wrote the report, adding that such
change will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use,
widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of
alternative fuels such as hydrogen.
As a result, the combined value of unburned fossil fuels and
stranded infrastructure could be as much as $4 trillion from 2015
through 2050 to limit global warming to about 2 degrees Celsius,
and it will be higher if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees
Celsius, the report's authors said.
The authors added, that in this context, coal assets are
expected to be at risk of being stranded before 2030, while oil and
gas assets are projected to be more at risk of being stranded
toward the middle of the century.
Such emissions cuts and efforts to make them happen have to take
place immediately, a key author said. "It's now or never, if we
want to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius," said IPCC
Working Group III Co-Chair Jim Skea. "Without immediate and deep
emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be
impossible."
1.5 C target requires emissions peaking before
2025
Limiting warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius would require
global GHG emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be
reduced by 43% by 2030 compared with 2019; at the same time,
methane would also need to be reduced by about a third by 2030, the
IPCC said in a 4 April statement accompanying the
report.
However, it said, "even if we do this, it is almost inevitable
that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but
could return to below it by the end of the century."
The report says average annual global GHG emissions rose 1.3%
between 2010 and 2019, compared with a 2.1% average between 2000
and 2009.
Still, the report said that in terms of total emissions, the
increase over the most recent decade was the highest recorded, with
the period accounting for 17% of all net CO2 emissions between 1850
and 2019.
Former executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change Christiana Figueres tweeted that the "report tells
us we are on a suicidal path. Change or kiss stability
goodbye."
While UN Secretary General António Guterres tweeted 4 April that the report
documented "a litany of broken climate promises. Some government
& business leaders are saying one thing, but doing another.
They are lying. It is time to stop burning our planet." He added: "It is time to stop
burning our planet & start investing in the abundant renewable
energy all around us. New @IPCC_CH report sets out viable,
financially sound options that can keep the possibility of limiting
global warming to 1.5° alive."
Use of removal technologies "unavoidable"
Those options must include, the report says, carbon dioxide
removal (CDR) technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and
storage (CCUS) or direct air capture (DAC). The deployment of CDRs
to counterbalance hard-to-abate residual emissions is "unavoidable"
if net-zero CO2 or GHG emissions are to be achieved, the authors
said.
A day after the report was issued, DAC pioneer Climeworks said it had raised $650 million
in equity backing. In September 2021, the Swiss firm's Orca DAC and
storage facility in Iceland began operations, a plant the company
says is the biggest in the world currently.
The scale and timing of deployment will depend on the
trajectories of gross emission reductions in different sectors, the
report authors said. Upscaling the deployment of CDR depends on
developing effective approaches to address feasibility and
sustainability constraints especially at large scales, they
added.
Mitigation options costing $100/metric ton (mt) CO2 equivalent
or less could reduce global GHG emissions by at least half the 2019
level by 2030, the authors said.
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis analyst
Omar Mawji toldNet-Zero Business
Daily, published by S&P Global Commodity Insights, 1 April
that a C$90-$100/mt ($72.08-$80.08/mt) Canadian carbon price means
CCUS makes economic sense in that country. The carbon price
increased 25% to C$50/mt on 1 April and
is set to rise by C$15/mt a year from 2023 and reach C$170/mt by
2030.
"We need to go all in"
The report's release found not just Guterres in combative mood,
UN Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen said in
a 4 April statement the report "completes the full picture of the
climate crisis facing humanity. And it is not a pretty picture …
Half-measures won't halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, which
is what we need to do. We need to go all in."
While US Public Interest Research Group Environment Campaigns
Director Matt Casale noted 4 April in a statement: "The latest IPCC
report confirms what we already know: It's time to retire and
replace coal-fired power plants and oil-based transportation
systems, and stop investing in methane gas infrastructure. We need
to make smarter, more sustainable choices, like investing in solar
panels, wind farms and electrical storage capacity. We need fewer
diesel and gas-powered vehicles and more electric vehicle charging
stations and electric buses."
Climate activist and US National Aeronautics and Space
Administration biodiversity specialist Peter Kalmus was even
blunter, tweeting: "Brief summary of the
new IPCC report: We know what to do, we know how to do it, it
requires taking toys away from the rich, and world leaders aren't
doing it."
Some leading Western politicians agreed with him. COP26
President Alok Sharma said in a 4 April UK government statement: "The warning lights
are yet again flashing bright red on the climate dashboard and it
is high time for governments to sit up and act before it is too
late."
And US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a 4 April
statement that the report "makes clear what we can do to stop or
slow planetary warming. The report also reveals how current global
efforts to mitigate the climate crisis fall far short of what is
needed." He added: "The report also tells us there is reason for
hope. The IPCC found we are making some progress towards the needed
reductions in carbon emissions."
Cold water, however, was thrown on that assessment by climate
activist Greta Thunberg who tweeted: "When reading the new
#IPCC report, keep in mind that science is cautious and this has
been watered down by nations in negotiations. Many seem more
focused on giving false hope to those causing the problem than
telling the blunt truth that would give us a chance to act."
Opportunities
The report's recommendation that fossil fuel consumption be
drastically reduced doesn't go quite as far as the International
Energy Agency's heavily-cited report from last
May, but a rapid move towards non-emitting fuel sources and greater
electrification is an opportunity for certain sectors of the energy
industry.
One trade association certainly saw the report as that.
"Concluding from the new IPCC Working Group III report, 3 actions
must be taken: 1. Maximize the mitigation potential of existing
#nuclear reactors. 2. Enable a significant acceleration in the
deployment of new NPPs. 3. Invest in the development of new nuclear
technologies," the World Nuclear Association (WNA) tweeted 4 April.
A UK academic, Corentin Cadiou, a doctor of astrophysics at
University College London, took issue with that assessment, arguing
in the WNA thread that on the contrary, wind and solar are each
four times more cost-efficient for reducing carbon footprint than
nuclear, and therefore point two and three of WNA's tweet should be
about renewables.
Wind advocates wouldn't disagree. Global Wind Energy Council CEO
Ben Backwell told Net-Zero Business Daily: "If governments
are serious about limiting global warming, then this report spells
game over for fossil fuels. Drastic and sustained action is needed
now to scale up the deployment of wind and renewables."
He said there are hundreds of gigawatts of "shovel-ready" wind
projects in the development pipeline around the world, particularly
in key G20 countries like the US, China, India, Australia, Brazil,
and the UK. As a result, "in this current global energy and climate
crisis, governments should introduce fast-track measures for these
projects, such as streamlining permitting and prioritizing grid
access. Accelerating these projects in the next one to three years
will increase energy security, accelerate emissions reductions and
generate billions in capital investment for a greener and more
resilient economy," he said in a 4 April email.
Investors agree. Stephanie Pfeifer, CEO at the Institutional
Investors Group on Climate Change, said: "The report is
unequivocal in the need for scaling up climate solution
technologies, including renewables. The investment gap between what
is currently being allocated to such technologies and where it
needs to be, must be cut rapidly; failure to do so threatens to
undermine all mitigation efforts."
It isn't just wind power that can offer change, other renewable
technologies must be utilized too, according to International
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) CEO Francesco La Camera. He tweeted 4 April that the report
"is a nod" to IRENA's call to "abandon" fossil fuels
and accelerate growth across the global low-carbon economy in its
Energy Transitions Outlook in
March.
Changing habits
Changing humanity's energy consumption habits is a major focus
for the report, but it also suggests change in other habits too,
recommending that shifting to "balanced, sustainable healthy
diets", which it termed a demand-side measure, more people cycling
to work, and increasing plastics recycling could also contribute to
mitigation efforts.
Reyes Tirado, a research scientist with Greenpeace Research
Laboratories at the University of Exeter, noted in a statement:
"Protecting forests and ecosystems, stopping deforestation and
shifting to plant-based diets in high income societies are
essential to achieve a safe climate. The solutions to fix the
broken food systems and secure nature protection have been made
evident: significant increases in finance, ensuring the rights of
Indigenous Peoples and local communities, and defending food
sovereignty and rural livelihoods."
The report is the third in a series from working groups for the
IPCC sixth assessment report. The first two looked at the physical
science basis of climate change and the impacts. After originally
being scheduled for release in July 2021, the latest report's
release was delayed for several months by the COVID-19 pandemic,
the IPCC said.
It was an arduous journey right up until the end. One of the
authors, WWF Global Lead Climate Scientist Stephanie Roe, tweeted on 3 April: "16 days,
capped off with a final ~40hrs straight of line-by-line negotiation
& approval. As one of the authors of the report, this moment
culminates years of work." The finalization process was the longest
approval plenary on record.
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