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The Global Wind Energy Council's forecast for offshore wind
installations in 2020 increased 5% compared with its pre-pandemic
forecasts to 6.5GW, led by an installation rush in China.
The offshore wind sector has been largely shielded from the
impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, the trade association said in early
November, with the 6.5GW forecast the latest record year for the
industry.
Through 2024, at least 48 GW of new offshore wind capacity is
expected to be installed, with another 157 GW forecast to be
installed by 2030, according to GWEC.
Following China's September pledge to be carbon-neutral by 2060,
to have a chance at achieving this goal, the world's largest wind
power market needs to be installing 50 GW of wind power a year
through 2025, and 60 GW a year from 2026 onwards, said Feng Zhao,
strategy director at GWEC.
The total pipeline of global offshore wind projects has risen
47% since January, RenewableUK said in late October.
The trade group's latest Offshore Wind Project
Intelligence report shows total offshore wind project capacity
globally that is operational, under construction, consented, in
planning or in development equals 197.4GW, up from 134.7GW in
mid-January. Of that pipeline, some 50.5% is in Europe at 99.6GW,
according to its survey.
"The global appetite to develop new offshore wind projects
remains enormous, despite the pandemic this year, as this research
proves. The UK and many other countries are counting on the rapid
growth of the offshore wind sector to be a key driver in the
worldwide green economic recovery," RenewableUK Deputy Chief
Executive Melanie Onn said.
UK tops pipeline table
The UK remained top of the table with a total pipeline of
41.3GW, up 12% since January, when its total was 36.9GW, the
UK-based trade group said.
But China roared up the rankings into second spot from fourth
with an 80% increase to 26.1GW from 14.5GW, according to the
survey.
The US retained its position on the bottom step of the podium,
with 10% growth to 17.8GW from 16.2GW.
However, Brazil is close behind, emerging from "nowhere" in the
words of RenewableUK to grab fourth place with 16.3GW. The 10
offshore wind projects on tap in Brazil have all been announced
since the start of the year.
Taiwan held onto a ranking of five with a 65% increase to 15.2GW
from 9.2GW, but Germany crashed from second to sixth place due to a
29% decrease in its pipeline from 16.5GW in January to 11.7GW in
October.
The top 10 was rounded out by three European nations rising up
the rankings and an Asian country doing the same.
The Netherlands is in seventh position with a 58% increase to
11.4GW from 7.2GW, according to RenewableUK, while Ireland's
pipeline expanded by 44% to 9.1GW from 6.3GW for eighth spot and
Poland took ninth with 72% growth this year to 9.1GW from
5.3GW.
Vietnam was outside the top 10 at the start of the year but
filled the last spot in the table with 8.6GW, "reflecting the
growing importance of the offshore wind market in East Asia," the
trade association said.
While the US is on pipeline podium, it remains a laggard in
terms of operational capacity, with just the 30-MW Block Island
project online.
That figure is dwarfed by those of the leading countries when it
comes to turbines turning. The UK is a long way out front at 10.4GW
while Germany is in second place with 7.7GW and China is third with
4.6GW, according to the RenewableUK survey. Rounding out the top
five are Belgium at 1.8GW and Denmark with 1.7GW.
Every home in the country: Johnson
And there's more on the way in the ladder leader. At the start
of October, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised the country's
offshore wind fleet would be producing "more than enough
electricity to power every home in the country by 2030."
Johnson upped his nation's offshore wind fleet target to 40GW
from 30GW and set a target for floating wind capacity for the first
time. He wants the UK to have 1GW of floating offshore wind
capacity online by 2030, a figure put in perspective by the former
London mayor admitting this was 15 times greater than the current
total across the globe.
"Our seas hold immense potential to power our homes and
communities with low-cost green energy and we are already leading
the way in harnessing its strengths," Johnson said 6 October.
"Now, as we build back better we must build back greener. So we
are committing to new ambitious targets and investment into wind
power to accelerate our progress towards net-zero emissions by
2050," he added.
How much of that will be sourced locally is up for discussion,
but Johnson is promising £160 million ($215 million) for upgrades
to ports and infrastructure and a sector that supports as many as
60,000 jobs directly and indirectly.
That is not the case in China, where the wind market is
dominated by local developers and equipment suppliers, including
the likes of Goldwind, Envision, Ming Yang and Shanghai
Electric.
And the scale of individual companies' operations is sizable
too. The top four onshore wind owners are Chinese, according to IHS
Markit data, with state-owned China Energy Investment Corporation
(China Energy) top of that list. China Energy is the fifth largest
global player individually in the offshore wind sector, according
to the data.
China's potential attracts overseas interest
It isn't just domestic players who are involved in this growth
though.
France's EDF is working with China Energy on a 500-MW offshore
wind project costing more than $1 billion. Construction began in
October, according to state news service Xinhua. EDF Group invested
more than $160 million for a 37.5% stake in the Dongtai
project.
State-owned China Three Gorges held talks with EDF's fellow
French energy giant Total on offshore wind, including floating
turbines, according to local media, and it launched the
construction of two offshore wind projects involving 2.2GW of
capacity in late February and expects to start operations by
2021.
The ambitions of the developer of the world's largest
hydro-electric project and a player in that sphere around the
globe, including in Brazil, span multiple renewable energy
sectors.
In August, a European subsidiary agreed to buy about 500 MW of
solar photovoltaic facilities in Spain from Madrid-based projects
developer X-Elio Energy, the seller said, with local media slapping
a Eur500 million ($606.9 million) price tag on the deal. X-Elio is
owned by Brookfield Renewable Partners and private equity behemoth
KKR.
China Three Gorges already had investments in Portugal, Germany,
the UK and Greece, X-Elio said. That Portuguese involvement
includes its stake in EDP, which it tried unsuccessfully to take
over in 2019. Its German interests include offshore wind farm
operator WindMW.
At the end of October, Japan and South Korea joined their
neighbor across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea in announcing
ambitions to reach net-zero emissions.
Japan is expected to publish a revised energy plan in June 2021.
Meantime, installation of the country's first utility-scale
offshore wind farm - a 139-MW MHI Vestas project - is expected to
begin in 2022.
South Korea, meanwhile, has brought in Norway's Equinor for an
800-MW joint venture with Korea National Oil Corp. (KNOC). Other
JVs on the ramp involve domestic companies and EDP Renewables, Aker
Solutions, Total and Macquarie Group's Green Investment Group —
the last of which involves 2.3GW of capacity.