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Nuclear power is beginning to gain more prominence as a viable
carbon-free emitting source as countries, notably the US, China,
France, and the Russian Federation, race to reach net-zero levels
after a decade in which the technology's prospects and profile took
a pounding.
At the recently concluded Leaders Summit on Climate, held
virtually 22-23 April, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive
Director Fatih Birol acknowledged the role nuclear power would play
in helping countries decarbonize, especially those that have
announced net-zero carbon goals.
"We have many technologies at our disposal today -- energy
efficiency, solar, wind, electric cars, nuclear power, and many
more -- and we need to deploy these as quickly as possible," Birol
said at the summit.
At the summit, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin
explicitly acknowledged the role existing nuclear plants have
played in reducing the country's carbon footprint. US President Joe
Biden came out in favor of supporting investments in small modular
nuclear reactors to help the country halve its GHG emissions by
2030.
Still other countries like Vietnam and Poland acknowledged the
use of this power source in their climate targets. However, the
heads of other developed countries like China, France, Japan,
Canada, and the UK, though relying on nuclear power to reach their
targets, did not mention it in their speeches.
The IEA for its part followed up Birol's remarks with an 18 May
report, "Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for
the Global Energy Sector" that identified nuclear and
hydropower as "the two largest sources of low-carbon electricity"
that will provide an essential foundation for a transition to a
global net-zero economy.
In the report that came out this week, the IEA forecast 90% of
electricity generated in 2050 will be from renewables, with wind
and solar making up 70% of the fuel mix, while nuclear power will
make up the remainder.
Direct heat, low cost, reliable
Nuclear power has two advantages over other sources, according
to advocates. It can provide heat directly to industrial processes
and it can generate power cheaply and reliably without releasing
GHGs. Since the 2011 tsunami that hit Japan and caused radiation
leaks from the Fukushima nuclear power plant, public opposition has
remained strong against any new plants coming online.
However, nuclear power to date has been responsible for avoiding
200 million mt of CO2 each year, which is the same as removing 400
million cars of the world's roads, the World Nuclear Association
wrote in a policy paper, "The Silent Giant: The need for
nuclear in a clean energy system."
"Nuclear power checks all the boxes in our effort to meet
zero-carbon goals," said Bret Kugelmass, managing director of the
Washington DC-based Energy Impact Center, which advocates for
nuclear power as a clean energy solution for the climate
crisis.
On top of supplying nearly 10% of global electricity, Kugelmass
said nuclear generation uses what he considers a negligible site
footprint compared with wind and solar facilities.
Former rivals agree on nuclear power
The US, France, China, the Russian Federation, and South Korea
were ranked as the top five nuclear generating countries in 2018,
according to the Nuclear Energy
Institute (NEI), a US-based trade association.
At the April summit, Biden pointed to the jobs and opportunities
that would be created through innovating and investing in the
latest small modular reactors. His climate plan also spotlighted
leveraging carbon-free power generated by existing plants.
"Manufacturing workers building nuclear and carbon capture
technologies, solar panels, and wind turbines," Biden said, adding
"… this challenge and these opportunities are going to be met by
working people in every nation. And as we transition to a clean
energy future, we must ensure that workers who have thrived in
yesterday's and today's industries have as bright a tomorrow in the
new industries as well as in the places where they live, in the
communities they have built."
Putin said at the summit that 45% of Russia's energy comes from
low-emissions sources, including nuclear. "It is common knowledge
that nuclear power plants produce almost zero greenhouse gas
emissions throughout their life cycle," he emphasized.
And on 19 May, Putin and Chinese President Xi
Jinping witnessed the ground-breaking ceremony for four new
nuclear power units in China through a livestream. Units 7 and 8 of
the Tianwan nuclear plant and units 3 and 4 of the Xudapu plant
will be constructed using Russian equipment.
"Responding to climate change is a common task for all
countries," Xi said, "China and Russia should promote more
low-carbon cooperation projects and play a constructive role in
achieving global sustainable development goals."
Noting that cooperation on peaceful use of nuclear power marks a
new era for the two countries, Putin said: "I believe that the
start of the four nuclear power units will not only inject new
vitality into the further development of Russia-China relations,
but also help achieve the goals to peak carbon dioxide emissions
and achieve carbon neutrality."
South Korea nixing nuclear
South Korea is not relying on its existing nuclear power fleet
to meet its net-zero goals in contrast to China, France, the UK,
and Japan.
Contrary to the other top nuclear nations, South Korea has
announced plans to exit nuclear power. South Korea's Third Basic
Energy Plan -- a high-level national policy released in 2019 to
guide the country's energy strategy through to 2040 -- said nuclear
power plant lifetimes will not be extended, and no new facilities
will be built. The country's Ninth Basic Plan for Electricity
Supply and Demand that would flesh out the contributions of each
existing energy source is slated for release sometime this
year.
At the April climate summit, South Korean President Moon Jae-In
announced the country would be submitting an updated and
strengthened GHG reduction target, while announcing an end to new
coal build at home and abroad. He did not discuss the nuclear
phaseout.
France, which currently obtains 70% of its annual power
generation of about 61,370 MWh from nuclear, is on a path to
reducing its reliance on the source to 50%, while China's 14th Five-Year Plan is looking
at accelerated development of both renewables and nuclear power in
the next five years as one of the main drivers toward its net-zero
goals by 2060.
UK is ranked tenth in terms of nuclear power generation in the
world, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson did not give a nod to
nuclear power in his speech at the summit. However, his 10-point plan for a "green
industrial revolution," released in November 2020, consider the
generation technology as a key climate solution.
Building on Johnson's 10-point plan, UK
Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
Alok Sharma released a white paper, "Powering our Net Zero
Future," in December 2020 that noted that nuclear power
currently supplies 16% of the country's needs, but also that the
country's existing eight plants will cease operating by the end of
2030.
UK, Japan need nuclear
Electricite de France SA (EDF) began construction of the Hinkley
Point C plant in Somerset in 2016 and is expected to bring it
online in the middle of this decade. Although Hinkley Point C is
expected to supply around 7% of the UK's electricity once it is
online, the white paper stated: "Our analysis suggests additional
nuclear beyond Hinkley Point C will be needed in a low-cost 2050
electricity system of very low emissions. We must be ready for
this."
Planning is currently underway on a 3,200-MW Sizewell C power
plant in eastern England that EDF also is planning to build in
partnership with China General Nuclear Power Group, a
Chinese-government-backed company that the US government has
blacklisted for allegedly attempting to acquire advanced US nuclear
technology and material for diversion to military use.
Sharma said the UK plans to invest £1 billion in the country's
energy innovation program to develop the technologies of the future
such as advanced nuclear and clean hydrogen and aims to bring at
least one large-scale nuclear project to the point of Final
Investment Decision (FID) by the end of this Parliament, in May
2024, "subject to clear value for money and all relevant
approvals."
"We are pursuing large-scale nuclear, whilst also looking to the
future of nuclear power in the UK through further investment in
small modular reactors and advanced modular reactors," Sharma
said.
Similar to the UK, Japan, which is ranked 12th in terms of
nuclear generation, also is looking at this power source as key to
its decarbonization goals. Prime Minister Suga Hoshihide announced
a new interim goal for Japan of reducing its GHGs emissions by 46%
by 2030 compared with 2013 levels and reaching net-zero levels by
2050. To reach that goal, Japan too is considering the use of
existing nuclear as well as small modular reactors like the US in
its power mix, according to a translation of the country's Green Growth Strategy.
Gates pushes nuclear
Interest in small modular nuclear reactors is rising in the
highest echelons of the US business world too, with Microsoft
founder and philanthropist Bill Gates pushing for innovation in
nuclear power plant technology in his recently published book,
titled "How to avoid a Climate Disaster."
During a 1 March talk at CERAWeek by IHS Markit,
Gates discussed an investment of about $2 billion in TerraPower,
which is developing a nuclear reactor that he said would provide
carbon-free power without the safety concerns that arise with
traditional plants. In October, the US Department of Energy awarded
a contract for up to $4 billion to TerraPower and X-Energy to build
next-generation nuclear plants within the next seven years.
Beyond electricity generation, nuclear plants have a role in
producing heat directly for buildings and industry (the sectors
responsible for half of all carbon emissions), which Kugelmass said
would be three times as cost effective than if another form of
electricity generation was used to produce heat for these
processes.
"That just leaves transportation, which the US Navy has
successfully prototyped nuclear energy's potential in producing
carbon-neutral fuels from little more than seawater," he added.
Public fears over leaks
Gates acknowledged public fears about nuclear power, especially
after Fukushima, which reinforced concerns about the dangers of
radiation that 1986's catastrophic Chernobyl nuclear power plant
fire in Russia ignited.
For instance, Germany is in the process of shuttering 26 nuclear
plants, with the last plant being taken off grid by the end of
2022, and France is also reducing its reliance on nuclear
generation from more than 70% to about 50% as it moves towards
net-zero targets.
Although the partial meltdown of the Unit 2 reactor at the Three
Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania a decade prior
resulted in small quantities of radiation being released, the
incident is recorded as the worst US nuclear power plant accident
and has been enough to scare some parts of the public.
In the US, public opposition remains strong, with environmental
advocates cheering the permanent closure of the Indian Point
nuclear power plant along the Hudson River in New York in April
2021.
The last nuclear plant that came online in the US was in
Tennessee in 2016, the Tennessee Valley Authority's Watts Bar Unit
2; it was the first new US reactor to come online since 1996.
Although US utility Southern Company received federal approval
in 2021 to build two new reactors, Units 3 and 4, at its Vogtle
plant in Georgia in 2012, they are still not online yet because of
construction delays. The utility is aiming to bring Unit 3 online
towards the end of 2021, but that date has been pushed back again
into early 2022 owing to pandemic-related delays. The start date
for Unit 4 though planned for end 2022 also remains up in the air
as well.
Cost overruns
But even when they start up, Vogtle's cost overruns could give
pause to investors. The two units were originally expected to cost
about $14 billion combined, but the latest estimate is more than
$25 billion, and hearings will be held in Georgia later this year
for regulators to wrestle with who is responsible for covering the
additional expense.
South Carolina Electric and Gas gave up on construction of two
additional reactors at the V.C. Summer Nuclear Station after
spending $9 billion on the project due to cost overruns and
mismanagement.
However, Kugelmass maintains that nuclear power remains the
cheapest source of energy to date and is unfazed by the problems
faced by the sector. "It's only shortcomings are time and cost to
build, which are just an artifact of recent industry trends," he
added.
Proponents of nuclear power including Kugelmass remain
cautiously optimistic about the energy source's prospects in the
US, and they point to Biden's explicit nod to nuclear power, which
to date has been treated like the stepchild of low-carbon energy
sources.
The Biden administration has demonstrated its commitment to
addressing the global climate crisis through a whole-of-government
approach to decarbonization that includes carbon-free nuclear
energy paired with wind, solar, carbon capture, and energy storage,
John Kotek, NEI senior vice president of policy development and
public affairs, told IHS Markit in an email.
Kotek said the president's climate plan provides an opportunity
to rethink the role of nuclear energy in climate and impact
investing.
"Any efforts made to reach net-zero must include changes in
financial practices, such as smart investments, international
exports, and effective policymaking, to ensure nuclear energy is
part of the solution," Kotek said, adding: "We expect to see
continued growth of the strong, bipartisan support for nuclear
energy and are confident the Biden administration understands
nuclear's role in addressing the climate crisis."
Even groups such as The Center for Strategic and International
Studies that maintain an agnostic stance when it comes to fuel
sources noted Biden's acknowledgement of nuclear power. "We
definitely sensed a greater clarity from the Biden administration's
support for nuclear," Jane Nakano, senior fellow with the CSIS
Energy Security and Climate Change Program, told IHS Markit.
Biden's consistent support
Nakano said Biden has been consistent since his presidential
campaign days about his support for nuclear innovation.
Biden has set an ambitious net-zero timeline for the power
generation sector of 2035 and the economy as a whole by 2050, she
said. "I think the practical approach has led to more clear support
for nuclear," Nakano said.
During an 18 May online conversation at the 2021 Columbia Global
Energy Summit, US National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy reiterated
the administration's support for nuclear power. Reactors provide "a
stable baseload system," keep GHG emissions down, and are going to
be an essential part of the US energy mix "while we build out our
transmission system" to enable greater penetration of renewables,
McCarthy said.
McCarthy was responding to a question from Jason Bordoff,
founding director of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy
Policy, who asked her to explain whether the US would continue to
support existing nuclear plants as part of its net-zero goals.
"In many areas, continuation of existing nuclear as long as its
environmentally sound and its permitted is going to be absolutely
essential because we need the time to actually find a way to get
renewable energy in a bigger pot of [energy] mix in those areas,"
she said.
McCarthy said the US isn't going after a net-zero target naively
by shutting down plants that provide reliable and affordable power.
"We're going to do it in a deliberate and expedited way," she
added.