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As nations around the globe expend more attention than ever on
reducing GHG emissions, recognition is rising that the
transportation sector, especially light-duty vehicles, must do its
part in the race to reach net-zero carbon emissions by
mid-century.
Speaking at the IHS Markit "Climate readiness and the
Journey to Net Zero" webinar on 16 June, IHS Markit CO2
Compliance Research Director Vijay Subramanian said the
transportation sector accounted for about 24-25% of global GHG
emissions in 2018 and 2019, with nearly 75% from road
transport.
In response, US President Joe Biden has pledged to reduce GHG emissions
by 50-52% economywide by 2030 from 2005 levels. The European Green
Deal is aiming for a 55% GHG reduction by 2030 compared with the
level in 1990. This deal includes a 90% reduction in transport
sector by 2050, with the Europeans working to release their 2030
climate and energy framework package in July 2021, Subramanian
said. China has pledged a 20% reduction from its peak emissions by
2035.
In an analysis of how global original equipment manufacturers
(OEMs) are doing so far on reducing CO2 emissions, IHS Markit has
found that they are well on their way to reducing Scope 1 and 2
emissions in the next decade, but Scope 3 is proving to be more
elusive.
For OEMs, scopes 1 and 2 are related to manufacturing a car
(fuel consumption in production and assembly, electricity, heating,
cooling, and steaming for operations). Scope 3 involves upstream
inputs like purchased goods and services and logistics, and most
importantly, the operation and end-of-life treatment of the
vehicle. The auto industry estimates Scope 3 emissions account for
more than 80% of value chain GHGs, Subramanian said.
"What needs to change in Scope 3 is that life cycle assessments
need to be incorporated, rather than tailpipe emissions analysis,"
Subramanian explained.
Life cycle assessment takes a well-to-wheel (WTW) look at all
the inputs throughout the full vehicle cycle and fuel cycle. Under
a WTW approach, the long-term benefits of the shift to electric
vehicles (EV) becomes visible, he said.
Using European carmakers as the example, IHS Markit finds that
manufacturing a battery electric vehicle (BEV) in 2020 generated
about 8 metric ton (mt) of CO2-equivalent, compared with about 5 mt
CO2-e for an internal combustion energy (ICE) vehicle. By the time
that vehicle has reached 150,000 km (about 93,000 miles) of
lifetime use, the equation has flipped, and the BEV has generated
less than half of the emissions of an ICE vehicle.
However, within the EU, Subramanian said, the projected overall
emissions impact of an EV can vary widely, depending on the carbon
intensity of the power that is being generated, which varies
drastically in every member state, certain states being higher or
lower than the EU average for total emissions from a BEV.
With France and Sweden able to generate electricity with a much
lower carbon footprint than Poland or Germany, for example,
governments must also grapple with how to decarbonize their power
sector while also accommodating the shift to EVs, he said. Overall,
for a BEV to be carbon neutral on a life cycle-based approach in
Europe, a large shift towards renewables is needed nationwide.
