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A strong rebound in renewable generation installations, a
continued surge in green hydrogen growth, and a focus on recycling
are among the key themes in clean technology in 2021, according to
IHS Markit.
"Annual solar installations are predicted to grow by over 30% in
2021 after volatile demand in 2020, triggered by the COVID-19
pandemic," IHS Markit said in a report on 21 January, Top Clean
Tech Trends to Watch in 2021.
China will account for 35% of global solar installations in
2021, IHS Markit said, but the industry is much more geographically
diverse than in 2010. "There are now 18 markets globally that have
+1 GW cumulative solar installations, compared to just six a decade
earlier," IHS Markit said.
Strong solar market demand comes despite an increase in
production costs of up to 15% that is driving a surge in module
prices, especially in the first quarter, it said. However,
production costs are set to drop in the second half of the year,
and this will lay the groundwork for record solar installations at
the end of 2021.
"We will see for the first time a situation in which global
demand grows over 30% despite high module prices in the first half
of the year, which is unprecedented in the solar photovoltaic
industry," said Edurne Zoco, executive director, clean energy
technology, at IHS Markit.
As for wind, 2020 set a record for new installations, with IHS
Markit tracking nearly 120 GW in activity. "Of this, nearly 60% was
from mainland China, including projects that have secured subsidy
entitlement. Annual onshore wind installations in 2021 will
continue to be derived from installation rushes in markets facing
imminent subsidy cuts," IHS Markit said.
Offshore wind deployment in 2021 could exceed 10 GW, nearly
twice as much as last year, again driven by mainland China. But IHS
Markit noted that over 20 GW worth of capacity is scheduled to be
auctioned in the UK, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany, the
US, Japan, and Taiwan.
"Floating foundations, the future of offshore wind in deep
waters, are finally moving into the commercial phase," observed
Andrei Utkin, senior associate, clean energy technology. "The
industry has proven the reliability of technology in a dozen pilot
projects, and in 2021 for the first time commercial floating
capacity will be allocated through auctions in the UK and
France."
IHS Markit sees "exponential growth" in the project pipeline for
hydrogen electrolysis projects this year. Costs to produce
low-carbon and no-carbon hydrogen could fall by 40% through 2025,
according to IHS Markit, due to the falling cost of electricity
sourced from renewable generation and the price decline expected in
electrolysis technology as it is scaled-up.
"The record growth last year in 'green hydrogen'
installations-hydrogen produced via electrolysis of water using
renewable power-will continue throughout 2021 as plans begin to
increasingly translate into concrete action," said Soufien
Taamallah, director, clean energy technology.
Other trends
In another trend to watch this year, "nonconventional"
renewables such as geothermal will generate increasing attention
from conventional energy companies and investors. "Nearly 0.5 GW of
new geothermal capacity is expected to be commissioned throughout
2021, with Indonesia and Kenya leading the global market," IHS
Markit said.
Innovation is driving down the cost of installations, at the
same time that new efficiency records are being set, with IHS
Markit citing Spain, India, and the Middle East region as having
the lowest solar levelized cost of electricity in the year ahead.
"Average module efficiency records continue to increase, surpassing
22.5% in PERC monocrystalline cell commercial production and are
forecast to reach 24% by 2022," it said.
And the future is bright, as IHS Markit identified the emerging
perovskite technology as "a promising solar cell technology
development with significant potential to increase cell
efficiencies and reduce costs," though it said that commercial
production is about five years in the future. Perovskite solar
cells are based on calcium titanium oxides.
Finally, the successful deployment of renewable technologies is
now creating new issues related to disposal and end-of-use that IHS
Markit said will gain in significance in 2021. "New policies for
battery recycling will be led by the automotive industry, spurred
on with a sense of urgency due to the shorter life cycle of
batteries compared to solar panels and wind turbines and the scale
of the EV sector," it said.
Onshore wind operators also will have to wrestle with disposal
issues. "With over 20 GW of the installed onshore wind fleet
globally exceeding their 20-year design life in 2021, decisions
about repowering, decommissioning, or extending life of existing
capacity will play a growing role in mature markets," said Indra
Mukherjee, senior analyst, clean energy technology, adding that
Germany, for example, will see subsidies for more than 6 GW of
capacity end this year.
Posted 21 January 2021 by Kevin Adler, Chief Editor