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Strategies to electrify heating and driving in New England will
raise demand for power during this decade, but will not put the
regional grid at risk of shortages, said the New England
Independent System Operator (ISO-NE), which manages planning, the
power market, and transmission grid for Connecticut, Maine,
Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Electrification of heating and transportation are considered
critical to enabling the US to continue to reduce its GHG
emissions. Transportation accounted for 29% of US GHG emissions in
2019, and commercial/residential heating and cooling accounted for
13%, according to the US Environmental Protection
Agency.
About 1.2 million air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) are expected to
be installed in New England homes by 2030, driving up power demand
in the heating sector by 2,526 GWh by the end of the decade, or
1.5%. By 2030, ISO-NE expects nearly 19% of homes will have heat
pumps.
Every New England state has a heat pump incentive program, which
offers rebates based on the estimated per-ton CO2 reductions
delivered. At the upper end, Massachusetts offers up to
$1,500 for the installation of a heat pump, and Maine offers up to $1,200.
A study in 2020 by climate group RMI found "heat pumps ranged
from 2.2 to 4.5 times more efficient than an Energy Star gas
furnace on an annual basis, and in no climate was a heat pump less
than 200% efficient," including in every New England state.
The federal government is touting the benefits of heat pumps
too. On 17 May, the White House announced it is
developing new Energy Star standards for heat pumps. "If all heat
pumps, central air conditioners, and electric water heaters sold in
the US met the new Energy Star standards, the energy cost savings
would grow to $11 billion a year," and 255 billion lb of annual GHG
emissions would be avoided, it said.
Concurrently, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced the Cold
Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge, as part of its Energy, Emissions and Equity
Initiative. Atop the list of priorities, according to DOE, is
"to develop a new technology specification for a high-performance,
cold-climate heat pump, followed by field validation and pilot
programs to address installation challenges and expand market
demand."
Today, the standards-setting body, the Air-Conditioning, Heating
& Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), does not have a test for air
source heat pumps below 17 degrees Fahrenheit, even though some
commercially available heat pumps can operate effectively at negative temperatures,
according to RMI. "This gives little to no indication of how
products compare in sub-zero conditions, or even which can operate
below zero at all," RMI said.
Source: ISO-New England
Electric vehicle use to top 1 million
Electric vehicle (EV) purchases also will see rapid growth,
induced by falling costs, improving battery range, and state-level
incentives to switch away from internal combustion engines (ICE).
ISO-NE projects 1.02 million EVs will be on the road in New England
by 2030, with nearly half to be purchased in Massachusetts. The new
cars will require an additional 3,554 GWh of grid electricity in
2030, or 2.7% of all grid demand.
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker announced in January a ban
on ICE light-duty vehicle sales in 2035, joining California and New
York in such initiatives. In April, Baker also joined the governors
of 12 states, including New England neighbors Connecticut, Maine,
and Rhode Island, in writing to President Joe Biden to urge a
nationwide ban on sales of new ICE light-duty vehicles by 2035 and
medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles by 2045.
Source: ISO-New England
"The [electrification] numbers aren't surprising," said Thomas
Maslin, IHS Markit principal research analyst. "Additional
electrification is 'baked into' our 'Fast Transition' outlook for
New England, California and other parts of the West, and New York
State."
"Fast Transition" is IHS Markit's name for a computer model it
launched in 2020 to forecast impacts on the power sector and the
economy if the US and Canada increased their commitments to carbon
emissions reductions by 2050. Under the Fast Transition scenario,
the US power industry would be more than 90% decarbonized (from a
2005 baseline) by 2050. This is in contrast to the "Planning Case"
in which the power sector would be 64% decarbonized by 2050.
"The US Northeast is driven by concerns over the continued
availability of natural gas, including the difficulty of building
new gas pipelines, and the political will to decarbonize. In
addition, the Northeast accounts for more than 85% of total US
residential heating oil demand. Policy supports electrifying both
natural gas and fuel oil heating," the Fast Transition analysis
states.
In fact, IHS Markit sees EV demand rising more sharply than
ISO-NE's forecast, as it projects that EVs will generate 3,900 GWh
of demand by 2030, or about 10% more than the grid operator
predicts.
"We are updating our Fast Transition forecast now, and it's
likely that the [electrification] numbers will be higher," Maslin
said, adding: "On EVs in particular, we see more states not
allowing ICE new vehicles sales after 2030 or 2035."
Peak demand issues
ISO-NE said that the combination of heat pumps and EVs will
result in peak winter demand for electricity increasing by nearly
2,500 MW, or more than 12% higher than current peak demand. Under
average winter conditions, peak demand in 2030 will reach 25,041 MW
in 2030.
The challenge will be keeping the regional power system balanced
without additional natural gas pipeline capacity, as adding new
pipelines in the region has been held up by permitting issues and
lawsuits.
Asked whether ISO New England is prepared to handle the newly
projected jump in winter peak demand, a spokesman for ISO-NE told
The Energy Daily that the new EV and ASHP projections come
in time for the grid operator to prepare.
"These forecasts give us the opportunity to see these trends
well in advance, and prepare the system," he said. "For example,
these forecasts eventually feed into our forward capacity market,
which procures the capacity needed to meet these peaks," he said,
referring to annual capacity auctions in which the grid operator
directs utilities to purchase supply commitments three years in
the future to ensure they can meet projected demand.
For this past winter, ISO New England projected a peak demand
of 20,166 MW and an "extreme winter peak" of 20,806 MW, which
assumed temperatures of about minus 2 degrees Fahrenheit. To meet
that demand, the grid operator said generators had committed to
supply 32,036 MW via capacity contracts, and if all plants pushed
their output to maximum levels they could produce roughly another
3,000 MW.
Nevertheless, ISO-NE said in its forecast that about 4,000 MW of
gas-fired generation serving the region remains at risk of going
offline in the event of supply disruptions similar to the winter
storm that froze gas equipment in Texas in February.
Based on reporting by Jeff Beattie, "The Energy
Daily."
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