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The latest forecast from the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) reinforces messages that have been coming for
the past year from international bodies, independent analysts, and
climate advocates: at its current trajectory, humanity will fall
far short of the Paris Agreement goal of reaching net-zero
emissions by 2050.
EIA's conclusion in its "International Energy Outlook 2021," released 6
October is that global energy demand will rise by 50% between 2020
and 2050, and carry annual CO2 emissions from this sector 24.7%
higher.
Annual energy CO2 emissions in 2050 will total 42.839 billion
metric tons (mt) globally, representing a yearly average gain of
0.7% from 2020 onwards.
"Even with growth in renewable energy, without significant
policy changes or technological breakthroughs, we project
increasing energy-related carbon dioxide emissions through 2050,"
said EIA Acting Administrator Stephen Nalley in a press
conference.
EIA projects that renewable energy will make significant inroads
in the global power mix by 2050, rising by 3.3% per year (compared
with 1% for oil and 0.9% for natural gas). It says that batteries
will contribute to reliability. Yet it states that gas and coal
will be needed to meet power demand as well.
Renewable generation will nearly triple from 65.1 quadrillion
Btu in 2020 to 191.7 quadrillion Btu in 2050. This will place its
share of the power market at about 58.4% in 2050, compared with
about 27.6% today.
Considering all end uses for energy—residential, commercial,
industrial, and transportation—fossil fuels still will provide
a large share, particularly for industry and transportation in
2050. However, it is worth noting that EIA places renewables' share
of energy consumption (235.2 quadrillion Btu) nearly on par with
hydrocarbon-based liquid fuels (248.5 quadrillion Btu), and ahead
of gas and coal.
Rising consumption of fossil fuels will overwhelm the
improvements anticipated in the carbon intensity of energy
production and usage, thus leading to the net gain in CO2
emissions.
IHS Markit perspective
IHS Markit has been modeling global energy use and carbon
emissions trends, taking into account the same technological
advances, price forecasts, and potential policies that EIA has
reviewed.
IHS Markit's latest forecast is somewhat more optimistic than
EIA's in terms of handling carbon emissions, but nonetheless
identifies a large gap between what's needed to minimize the impact
of climate change, and where industry and consumer use seems to be
taking carbon emissions. The IHS Markit base case, known as
"Inflections," was updated this summer.
"Inflections shows growth in energy demand to 2050 of
approximately 25%, but this is against a background of a global
population increasing by approximately 2 billion, with most of
those in emerging markets," Paul McConnell, research and analysis
executive director, energy-wide perspectives, said. "Inflections
does show a decline in GHG emissions over that same period,
indicating the energy transition is well underway. But it's not
enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, nor reach net-zero
emissions by 2050."
OECD, non-OECD divide
EIA broke down its forecast into two categories: the 38
developed countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the non-OECD nations.
This divide carries added significance heading into the UN COP26
meeting next month in Scotland, where pressure will be on the
world's wealthy countries, which have generated most of carbon
emissions historically, to commit to deeper emissions cuts.
In fact, a report issued this week by Carbon Tracker states that the
US is responsible for 20% of the world's CO2 emissions since the
industrial revolution, followed by China (11%), Russia (7%), Brazil
(5%), Indonesia (4%), Germany (4%), India (3%), and the UK
(3%).
Carbon Tracker's analysis indicates that the world has already
emitted 86% of the CO2 it can release if global warming is to be
limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the goal of the Paris accord.
Aiming to meet that Paris goal, 90 nations plus the 27-state EU
have announced tougher Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
in the last year. But analysis by the UN's climate agency in September
found that those pledges would not reach the 2030 goal of a 45% cut
in GHG emissions—and that's even if all of the NDCs were
achieved. The UN report analyzed NDCs from 113 countries that
represent 49% of annual global emissions (both OECD and non-OECD
countries), finding that their total GHG reductions will increase
about 12% from the 2010 baseline by 2030.
EIA's outlook, which spans 195 countries, sees a continuation of
that upward trend. Its base case sees CO2 emissions from non-OECD
countries increasing by 35% by 2050 compared with 2020 levels plus
a 5% rise in OECD countries.
For non-OECD countries, EIA projects net CO2 emissions will
increase by 4.2 billion mt between 2020 and 2035, followed by an
increase of 3.7 billion mt between 2035 and 2050, with the slower
growth in the second half of the projection period "largely linked
to increases in renewable energy and energy efficiency."
OECD countries' CO2 emissions will increase by 175 million mt
between 2020 and 2035 and by over 400 million mt between 2035 and
2050.
For the US, EIA projects that CO2 emissions will peak in 2021 at
63.2 million mt, and fall to 46.4 million mt in 2050—far short
of a net-zero goal.
Trends: EVs, crude oil, gas
On the positive side, EIA predicts rapid adoption of electric
vehicles (EVs) across the OECD, contributing to a flattening of
emissions from the transportation sector.
EIA said sales of internal combustion engine vehicles would peak
in 2023 in OECD countries and in 2038 in non-OECD nations. The net
result will be an estimated 780 million plug-in electrics or
hybrids by 2050 across the OECD and non-OECD nations, out of about
2.1 billion light-duty vehicles.
In the power generation arena, EIA said all post-2020 generation
growth in OECD regions will come from renewables, with solar and
wind "displac[ing] an increasing share of existing non-renewable,
mostly fossil fuel-based, sources."
For non-OECD regions, renewables will account for about 90% of
new generation from 2020 to 2050. Because these nations will
experience greater population growth and are continuing to provide
energy to under-served parts of their population, their energy
consumption growth rate will be 2.4% per year, compared with 0.6%
in the OECD.
Nonetheless, oil and gas demand will rise as well, driven by
emerging Asian nations. Global demand for oil will reach 125.9
million b/d in 2050, up from 92.1 million b/d in 2020, or a 1%
annual gain. Non-OECD countries will increase their demand by 1.5%
per year (compared with 0.4% for OECD countries), and will be
responsible for 78.4 million b/d of demand by 2050.
The US, Russia, Canada, and OPEC will meet those needs with
overall increases of 50% in crude oil production.
On the gas side, the picture is similar. Global growth will be
0.9% per year through 2050, or a total of 30% during the period, to
reach 186 trillion cubic feet/year. Non-OECD nations' needs will
grow at 1.2% annually, compared with 0.5% for OECD countries.
New demand for gas will present opportunities for all of the
world's leading exporting nations and regions.
Posted 07 October 2021 by Kevin Adler, Chief Editor
