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The year 2021 will be remembered for many things, including
being the year when France finally starts to fulfill its offshore
wind potential, observers say.
France has 3,427 km of coastline, according to the US Central
Intelligence Agency World Factbook, and unlike the waters off
Norway, which has over 80,000 km of coastline and tops the European
table in this respect, much of it is relatively hospitable.
As new targets continue to be set across Europe for offshore
wind capacity -- the EU set a goal of 300 GW by 2050 in November --
France is set to join the continent's established front-runners
ringing the North Sea, finally overcoming the difficulties that
hobbled any early momentum, according to Green Giraffe Director
Kevin Feldman.
By the end of December, a tender is expected to be underway for
1 GW of fixed-bottom capacity off the coast of Normandy, a
development area called Manche Est Mer du Nord. The tender is
expected to be awarded before the 2022 presidential election,
according to Feldman, whose company focuses on advising renewables
companies, especially in the offshore wind sector.
In 2021 through 2022 another 0.5 to 1 GW of capacity will be
made available for tender in southwest France, an area known as
Sud-Atlantique. The government also plans to hold three tenders for
floating capacity in 2021 and 2022, each with 250 MW of capacity.
The first will be in the Bretagne Sud area, while the other two in
2022 are planned for areas in the Mediterranean. Another 1 GW of
fixed offshore wind will be up for auction in 2023.
The French government, which has come in for stiff criticism
over its lagging efforts in the sector compared with those of its
neighbors, especially across La Manche, now has a roadmap,
according to Feldman, expecting 5.2 GW-6.2 GW of offshore wind to
be online by 2028.
Speaking during a virtual World Forum Offshore Wind webinar,
Feldman said the support for upcoming tenders -- in the form of
20-year contracts for difference (CfD) -- is strong, as it
diminishes the merchant risk. The last tenders held -- Round 3 --
attracted a lot more overseas attention because of this,
substations now being the responsibility of the grid operator
rather than developers and pre-permitting work being allowed, he
added.
France was interested in offshore wind, as Feldman puts it
"pretty early." In Round 1, awarded in July 2012, there were four
winners out of 10 offers. In Round 2, awarded in May 2014, there
were two winners out of four offers. However, Round 1 and Round 2
projects are only expected to begin operating commercially in
2022-2023.
These projects are only coming to fruition at the moment, after
much renegotiation, including of their tariffs. In June, the French
government approved six wind projects, but cut their tariffs. "We
will bring about renewable energy more quickly and less
expensively: the projects are confirmed, their public subsidy is
reduced by 40%," tweeted President Emmanuel Macron.
Prior to that, the framework for projects took a long time to
work out. Rounds 1 and 2 were assessed on qualitative factors,
including how much local content was included, as successive
governments hoped to build a manufacturing base. However, efforts
to maximize local content were somewhat hampered by the wind
turbine arms of Areva and Alstom being bought by industry powers
Siemens Gamesa and GE, respectively.
But even as France gains momentum, some choppy waters could
still be ahead. The Brittany Regional Fisheries Committee warned in
November it will look to block Iberdrola's 496-MW Saint-Brieuc
project, located 16 km off the coast of Brittany in the English
Channel, from going ahead if the authorities do not do so, citing
its proximity to scallop fishing grounds. Construction is due to
start in spring 2021. The project is scheduled to enter service in
2023.
Deep waters
Immediately to the south of France, Spain -- home to such
behemoths of the sector as Iberdrola and Siemens Gamesa plus 4,964
km of coastline -- is likely to find it much harder to join the top
table of European offshore wind, the observers say.
Not only are Spanish prospects characterized by deep offshore
waters, but the most promising area in terms of wind speeds -- the
Canary Islands -- is isolated from mainland Spain and a small
market, according to Luiz Gonzalez-Pinto, Chief Operating Officer
at Saitec, a floating turbine developer. In addition, a Canary
Islands auction is set to be delayed until 2022.
The Canary Islands has the best wind resources in Spain and a
higher cost of energy due to state subsidies related to its
distance from mainland Spain. However, the supply chain is limited,
as is demand. And competition to win the leases available is
expected to be fierce, according to Gonzalez-Pinto, who argues that
such a situation makes it "maybe not the best commercial
opportunity." Although his perspective must be considered, Saitec
is working on projects off the country's northern coast in the Bay
of Biscay.
Galicia, meanwhile, has a much healthier supply chain scenario,
according to Gonzalez-Pinto, noting it is already an onshore wind
hub for Spain. However, it also has some of the best fishing
grounds, Europe's largest fishing fleet, and with that the
entrenched political heft due to the number of jobs supported and
export revenues earned. In addition, there are a good number of
protected areas, and competition for space would be fierce, he
added.
To the east is what Gonzalez-Pinto termed the
Asturias-Cantabria-Basque Country area, which is dogged by being a
high density area, but a number of coal-fired power plants are
going offline in this section of the country, and it is an
industrial hub offering what he called a "powerful" supply chain on
the positive side of the chit.
A roadmap for the sector is expected to be published at the end
of 2020 by the Spanish government. This roadmap is expected to
provide a clearer permitting pathway, particularly when it comes to
grid connections, Gonzalez-Pinto said. More details on maritime
spacial planning guidelines are also required, he added.
The Spanish Wind Association wants there to be 2-3 GW of
capacity by 2030. The target, according to Gonzalez-Pinto, is
ambitious and challenging.
Things could be even tougher in the short-term in Poland,
according to John MacAskill, Group Marketing Director,
AqualisBraemar, even though it aims to install 28 GW of offshore
wind by 2050, which most certainly would put it among the
continent's leaders.
While the government and industry representatives signed a pact
in July, MacAskill, who held a similar position at its Offshore
Wind Consultants unit, said a time crunch could derail any momentum
in Poland, with the proposed Offshore Wind Act expected to come
before parliament in January, less than six months before CfDs for
projects already on the slate need to agreed. If they aren't, it
could capsize the whole sector, he said.