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Europe's major aviation trade groups revealed the outline of a
plan through which all flights within and departing Europe will
realize net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050.
Known as "Destination 2050 - A Route to Net
Zero European Aviation," the aim of the plan is to reach the
net-zero goal through a combination of four main measures:
improvements in aircraft and engine technologies; use of
sustainable aviation fuels; carbon offset purchases; and
improvements in air traffic management and aircraft operations.
Today, aviation contributes about 2% of all human-induced CO2
emissions (and 12% of the transportation sector's), according to
the industry's Air Transport Action Group (ATAG). ATAG members have
committed to a fuel economy improvement of 1.5% per year through
2030, as a way to reduce the environmental impact of air
travel.
Other studies, such as work by the Global Carbon Project,
project a higher impact of as much as 2.5% of annual global
emissions coming from aviation.
Destination 2050 would result in the avoidance of about 250
million metric tons/annum (MMtpa) of CO2 emissions by 2050, with
improvements in aircraft and engine design and sustainable aviation
fuels contributing about 210 MMtpa of those reductions.
"(Under the four measures) absolute emissions are reduced by
92%, while the remaining 8% is removed from the atmosphere through
negative emissions, achieved through natural carbon sinks or
dedicated technologies," the report said.
The result would be a radical shift in the trajectory of
emissions from a business-as-usual approach for aviation (see graph
below).
Improvements in aircraft and engine technology would be
gradually rolled out across the industry as aging planes are
replaced, the report said. The report also states that sustainable
aviation fuel could reach the market at about 3 MMt in 2030, rising
to 32 MMt in 2050, while liquid hydrogen would be account for about
10 MMt by 2050. Combined, these would displace about 90% of the
anticipated demand for fossil fuel-based kerosene in 2050.
The following groups jointly presented the Destination 2050
plan: Airports Council International Europe, AeroSpace and Defence
Industries Association of Europe, Airlines for Europe, Civil Air
Navigation Services Organisation, and European Regions Airline
Association.
Coordinating with COVID-19 recovery
The report comes as the industry is still struggling to recover
from the impact on travel of COVID-19 pandemic-induced
restrictions.
In a report issued in November, the Aviation Round Table, which
includes the same trade groups that wrote Destination 2050, as well
as more than a dozen others in affiliated industries, issued a call
for more financial assistance from the European Union (EU).
"The Aviation Round Table calls on the EU and its member states
to put in place a targeted European Aviation Relief Programme
covering the period until the recovery of air traffic, which is not
expected before 2024 or 2025," they wrote.
Included in that request for additional financial relief, the
Aviation Round Table raised the issue of a long-term commitment to
emissions reductions. "[We] invite the EU and member states to join
us in defining and agreeing, by the end of 2021, an EU Pact for
Sustainable Aviation," the group stated, offering net-zero CO2 by
2050 and "significant emissions cuts by 2030…"
The Aviation Round Table called for an increase in incentives
for retiring older planes and public funding to support research on
low-emissions aviation technology. And it said it supports the
existing emissions trading scheme known as the Carbon Offsetting
Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
Now, the Destination 2050 report offers more detail on how the
industry can reach net zero, and what some of the costs might be.
It says that a carbon fee of about €160/mt ($193.87/mt) in 2050
would correlate to the expected costs of carbon removal and
offsets.
The use of sustainable aviation fuels, a major component of
Destination 2050, is an opportunity for the aviation sector to
reduce its carbon footprint, especially through biofuels
production, according to IHS Markit. Some European refiners are
embracing this opportunity, as they face a continued tightening of
regulations on crude-based diesel fuel and kerosene. "A growing
market for [hydrogenated vegetable oil] in the aviation sector and
the US market could also represent an opportunity," IHS Markit
wrote in a report in October 2020, "Bracing for a low-carbon
future."
Potential is strongest in countries that have added their own
incentives for biofuels, such as Finland and Norway, which each
have a sustainable jet fuel blending mandate of 0.5% in 2020 and
one of 30% by 2030. The Netherlands is targeting a 14% biojet
market share in 2030, and France has a plan that will go into
effect in 2022 for a 1% quota, to be increased to 2% in 2025 and 5%
in 2030.
"Other countries in Europe are expected to follow suit, and even
the European Commission is considering coming forth with some
binding sustainable aviation targets, to complement (or amend) RED-II," IHS Markit said,
referencing Europe's renewable energy criteria for fuels that will
be in effect in 2030.
However, IHS Markit warned that the potential growth for
Europe's biofuels production—whether for aviation or other
uses—will be limited by feedstock availability, market size,
and government support.
Includes reporting by Abdul Latheef, OPIS.
Posted 16 February 2021 by Kevin Adler, Chief Editor
