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The decline of solar PV installations in 2020 triggers oversupply and accelerates the consolidation of the Solar PV module manufacturing base
25 June 2020Edurne Zoco, Ph.D.
117 GW is the adjusted post-COVID 19 installation outlook for
2020.
Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in China in late 2019, solar
manufacturing was severely disrupted in Q1 2020 as the Chinese
national holiday was extended and restrictions were placed on
movement. This reduced workforces, cut the supply of critical
components for PV modules such as cells, connectors, or glass, and
made it almost impossible to ship completed products due to the
closure or partial closure of transport routes, ports, etc.
As restrictions gradually eased, manufacturing in China slowly
resumed from late February, and has reached the end of the second
quarter with almost full recovered capacity.
Throughout March, as the COVID-19 pandemic quickly spread around
the world, disruption to supply has quickly turned to an
unprecedented stall in global demand, switching the industry almost
overnight from a sellers' market to a buyer's markets. Tight
restrictions on people movement were quickly put in place by
Governments in almost every major solar market in the world to curb
the spread of the disease, making increasingly challenging to
complete installations. In most markets, large projects originally
planned for completion in H1 2020 have been impacted and delayed in
some way, and roof-top installations will be disrupted in the
second half of the year due to changes in the macro-economic
conditions. The planning and kicking-off of new projects in H2 2020
will be impacted since the economics and business model of utility
and commercial and industrial (C&I) projects need to be
reassessed in the new Post-COVID 19 environment.
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