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The UN COP26 gathering in Glasgow concluded 13 November with
delegates from at least 193 countries agreeing to double climate
adaptation financing from 2019 levels by 2025, and to "phase down"
the use of unabated coal power and fossil fuel subsidies at some
uncertain date.
Based on the advanced unedited copy of the Glasgow climate
pact, participating delegates as well as observers and analysts
returned home after making some headway toward the goal of limiting
global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, despite not meeting the $100
billion-a-year goal in climate financing and agreeing to some
last-minute changes in the wording related to unabated coal use and
fossil fuel subsidies.
For instance, delegates in principle agreed to reduce global CO2
45% below 2010 levels by 2030 and to achieve net-zero goals by
mid-century, but stopped short of applying this target to other
GHGs, notably methane, which play a key role in global warming. The
agreement called for "deep reductions in other greenhouse
gases."
Recognizing the climate urgency raised by the UN researchers,
the delegates collectively agreed to take action to limit global
warming below 1.5 degrees C and to help the world's poorest nations
adapt to climate extremes, as they had tentatively agreed in their
initial draft.
They also "urged" parties to the Paris Agreement to submit new
or updated emissions reductions plans known as Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of the COP27 meeting in Egypt
next November, while requesting those that have "to revisit and
strengthen" the 2030 targets to align with the Paris Agreement
temperature goal of below 2 degrees C by end 2022.
Conferees also made progress on updating rules under Article 6 from the Paris
Agreement, which reflect how voluntary carbon trading markets can
be monitored to assure that claimed emissions reductions are real
and are retired after use.
Acknowledging the role of fossil fuels
Many analysts present at the meeting and outside lauded the
first-time acknowledgment of fossil fuels and the role coal power
plays in increasing GHGs emissions and global warming, while others
decried the last-minute change that the Indian delegation demanded
to substitute the phrase "phase out" with "phase down."
But what remained conspicuously absent from this language was a
timeline for this action.
"The text of this UN agreement on climate for the first time
mentions coal and fossil fuels, but there is no date attached to
it, so it is clearly pretty loose in what it could mean, especially
if the goal is to reduce GHG emissions 45% by 2030," Paul
McConnell, IHS Markit executive director for climate scenarios
team, told Net-Zero Business Daily 15 November.
The agreement calls on parties to "accelerate the development,
deployment and dissemination of technologies, and the adoption of
policies, to transition towards low-emission energy systems,
including by rapidly scaling up the deployment of clean power
generation and energy efficiency measures."
This language is seen by some environmental groups, such as the
nonprofit Center for Biological Diversity, as throwing a lifeline
to the fossil fuel industry because it allows or encourages
technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage.
Historical moment
However, Chris Littlecott, associate director for fossil fuel
transition at the European climate think tank E3G, is of the camp
who preferred to view the developments on fossil fuels as a glass
half full. Terming the language as "a historical moment,"
Littlecott said it is "an unprecedented recognition by all parties
of the necessity of moving away from fossil fuels, starting with
coal power generation."
Outside of the Glasgow climate pact, however, US, China, Russia,
Japan, Brazil, and India, which make up the top GHG emitters, did
not sign a UK-led global agreement to phase out
the use of coal. At least 46 countries, including the EU, Canada,
and South Korea, as well as coal-dependent economies, such as
Vietnam, Chile, and Poland, did join the UK pact.
The EU made it known that it would not halt its investment in natural gas
infrastructure as it plans to modify it for use by low-carbon,
green hydrogen, and other fuels that its member countries will need
to transition to a decarbonized world.
Real test of Glasgow
During a 13 November press briefing, US Special Presidential
Envoy on Climate John Kerry emphasized that Glasgow "gives us a
very clear blueprint going forward about the things we need to do
for now through 2030 and 2030 through 2050, and it embraces keeping
the 1.5 degrees goal alive."
However, McConnell noticed a "mismatch" between the long-term,
net-zero by 2050 goals and what actions countries are prepared to
take by 2030. This is most evident from the lack of strong updates
to their respective NDCs from India and China.
On the first day of COP26, fourth-ranked GHG emitter India announced plans to reduce 45%
of its carbon emissions intensity, or the amount of carbon released
per capita, by 2030 and to increase its goal of installing 500 GW
of renewable energy by that date in its update to its NDC. China in
its update reiterated its earlier publicly stated plans to phase
down coal power use after peaking prior to 2030. The US and China
also agreed to take steps to reduce emissions of methane, a more
potent GHG than CO2, with China committing to announce a climate action plan
at the next COP meeting, which will take place in November 2022 in
Egypt.
Scientists and analysts, however, say the goals announced by
China are too weak to make a dent in the goal of limiting global
warming to 1.5 degrees C. Second-ranked US and third-ranked EU
announced pledges earlier this year to reduce at least half of
their GHG emissions by 2030.
India, China, and Russia also are not among the 108 countries
that have signed the global pledge to reduce methane emissions by
2030 that the US and EU formally launched at the COP26 meeting.
According to global climate think tank E3G, "How countries
establish new cooperation to deliver more short-term action over
the next 12 months will be the real test of success at
Glasgow."
Growing needs of developing countries
The delegates noted "with concern" the growing needs of
developing countries as they grapple with increasing climate
impacts, such as hurricanes and flooding that countries like
Bangladesh and Uganda are experiencing, and the high level of
indebtedness as a result of the pandemic.
Regretting their inability to meet the $100 billion a year
pledge agreed in 2009 COP meeting in Copenhagen that they are
hoping to meet in 2023, the delegates agreed to increase the
funding levels past 2025. They also agreed, as reported earlier, to
double the financing for adaptation measures beyond 2019 levels to
bring the funding up to par with that set aside for mitigation.
The Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group, which represents 46
of the world's poorest nations that are most vulnerable to climate
change but have done the least to cause it, were pleased that the
delegates agreed to increase funding for adaptation. The LDC Group was
"disappointed" though that an agreement wasn't reached on carving
out a separate pool of money for loss and damage that these
countries are incurring now.
"Our people are already experiencing a mounting onslaught of
loss and damage caused by climate change. We heard widespread
recognition of this injustice, yet there was a failure to address
it," LDC Group Chair Sonam P. Wangdi, who also is secretary of
Bhutan's National Environment Commission, said in a 14 November
statement.
At the conclusion of the meeting, Kerry noted that Glasgow was
never meant to be "the finish line."
"Paris built the arena and Glasgow starts the race. And tonight,
the starting gun was fired," Kerry said, adding, "we have about
nine years within which to make those critical decision we were
warned about in 2018 by the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
change]."
Posted 15 November 2021 by Amena Saiyid, Senior Climate and Energy Research Analyst