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Climate: 2020 energy-related CO2 emissions decline to 2011 levels
14 May 2020Steven Knell, Ph.D.Susan Farrell
Key findings:
IHS Markit is projecting the largest drop in energy-related
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in history in 2020, back to levels
not seen since 2011.
A decline of nearly 7% is expected in 2020 compared with 2019,
based on a conservative estimate of Global GDP decline of 3%.
The 2020 emissions volume decline, 2.6 Gigatons (Gt),
represents an amount greater than the additions of the prior eight
years combined.
Using interim GDP and fuel price forecasts from April, the
Energy and Climate Scenarios team has developed provisional
guidance on how the energy transition is expected to progress
through 2023 in the Rivalry (base case) scenario.
Energy-related emissions are projected to rise in 2021 along
with GDP and move slowly back to trend after 2023. However, total
levels projected by 2025 in our 2019 estimates will now not be
reached until 2050.
The depth and duration of the economic lockdowns opened a view
to the potential of clean air and less congestion. Although most
initial stimulus is to get people back to work in existing
industries, there is increased potential for the populous and
investors to push for future ties to low-carbon investment.
Especially as the physical impacts of a changing climate will
continue to be evident, quite irrespective of a pandemic.
