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The coal-fired power plants built in China in 2020 exceeded
capacity taken offline in the rest of the world, a new report
says.
China added 38.4 GW of coal-fired power capacity, slightly more
than the 37.8 GW of coal plants mothballed in all other countries.
The increase marks the first net expansion of the global coal fleet
since 2015—even as countries like the US get more aggressive
about moving to lower-carbon energy.
The data was released 5 April in the 2021 edition of "Boom and Bust," an annual
report that tracks the state of the global coal industry, from
environmental group Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and its
partners.
Despite the overall increase, GEM remained upbeat on the
longer-term trend of decline that coal plants are charting
worldwide. It said the decisions to stop using coal plants have
accelerated as countries and companies carry out plans to take
fossil fuels like coal out of the global power system, in keeping
with worldwide efforts such as the Paris climate accord.
"In 2020, we saw country after country make announcements to cut
the amount of coal power in their future energy plans," said
Christine Shearer, who directs the GEM coal program. The world's
in-progress coal plant developments are "very likely" the last such
plants in the future, Shearer said.
China's outlier status is partly explained by one-off policy
exceptions in response to economic shocks from the COVID-19
pandemic. Provincial governments loosened restrictions on new plant
permits in order to stimulate investment, while China's central
government increased lending for large coal projects. In other
words, China's coal gains in 2020 resulted because, not in spite
of, the economic tumult of the global pandemic, the report
said.
China's net coal additions are all the more striking when
compared with trends across the broader Asia region. Last year
brought a "collapse of the coal plant pipeline in south and
southeast Asia," the report said. Three factors -- cratering
electricity demand, general economic contraction, and increasingly
difficult financing -- all hindered Asian coal build outside
China.
The report found that an aggregate 62.0 GW of coal capacity was
canceled, or is set to be canceled, across the countries of
Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
James Stevenson, senior director of IHS Markit's Coal, Metals,
and Mining practice, noted that the net addition of global coal
capacity in 2020 belies longer-term decline trends. "The trajectory
is down," Stevenson said, even when accounting for China's robust
coal build last year. "We expect a decline in China,
eventually."
For the US, and further back than just 2020, the GEM report
found that the sector's capacity declined in spite of promises by
former US President Donald Trump to revive the long-ailing
industry. Trump's tenure as president spanned 2016-2020, and he won
the 2016 election after campaign promises to support US coal and
related jobs.
More coal capacity was decommissioned under Trump than under
former President Barack Obama, the report said, with totals of 52.4
GW and 48.9 GW, respectively. "President Trump's promised coal boom
was a bust," the report said.
Current President Joe Biden, who has pledged to decarbonize the
US power system by 2035, will need to accelerate today's rate of
coal plant retirement. Currently, only one-third of total US coal
capacity is expected to retire by 2035 without more ambitious
government policy, the report said.
Posted 14 April 2021 by William Fleeson, Senior research analyst for Executive Briefings, IHS Markit
