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US President Joe Biden has laid out his intentions to shift the
country's stance on a number of geopolitical issues, and this
includes a return to a leading role in tackling climate change.
However, those intentions must be backed up with evidence of real
actions, participants in the "Geopolitics" panel discussion at
CERAWeek by IHS Markit said 1 March.
"The Biden administration has been very explicit … that the US
is back and wants to repair its alliances, particularly with
Europe," said Angela Stent, director, Center for Eurasian, Russian,
and East European Studies at Georgetown University.
Europeans are willing to work with the US, but "they are wary,"
Stent said, after seeing how President Donald Trump shifted course
radically, and knowing that Biden's term is only four years in
length. "But they are willing to work with the United States," she
said, citing the need to address differences on matters such as
tariffs, defense spending, and forging a common policy toward
Russia.
Climate change is an area where the US and other nations realize
they need to come to a rapid agreement, said Jason Bordoff,
founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia
University. Biden's return to the Paris Agreement is a big step in
the right direction, he said, but "also it's about walking the
walk…. That's just step one."
To demonstrate its commitment to the Paris Agreement, the US
must announce an ambitious target for its Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC), which is the emissions reduction goal for 2030
that is voluntary under the Paris accord. A target of a 50%
reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 would be
"ambitious," said Bordoff, but it also needs to be credible.
"Credibility means that we take the necessary domestic actions
to get on track," he said. "Biden is using every tool he has under
his executive authority … [and] Congress, I think, will spend a
great deal of money on infrastructure, let's say a couple of
trillion dollars, and lot of that will be clean energy. And states
are acting as well. But that's not enough to get to 50%, which is
why -- crazy as it sounds in today's Washington -- Biden needs to
reach across the aisle and try to work with Republicans on climate
change."
A carbon tax would be the type of major additional measure that
Bordoff said could put the US on a 50% emissions reduction pathway,
but he added, "I wish I was more optimistic" about prospects for
the bipartisanship in Congress needed for that type of
legislation.
Compartmentalization
The panelists talked at length with moderator Daniel Yergin, IHS
vice chairman, about Biden's apparent policy of trying to
"compartmentalize" one international issue from another. Biden
favors this strategy as a way to move ahead on a matter such as
climate change while leaving other disputes for separate
negotiations.
"You have John Kerry, who is in charge of climate issues, … and
for other non-climate issues … Tony Blankin as the Secretary of
State," said Margaret O'Sullivan, chair of the North American Group
of the Trilateral Commission and the director of the Geopolitics of
Energy Project at Harvard University's Kennedy School.
"It's not obvious that this framework is going to work," she
warned. "It may be that China has no interest in compartmentalizing
things, and it could see greater value in conceding something on
climate … while coupling [it] to get more space on sovereignty
issues. We do have a framework, but time will tell if it's
operational."
Kerry, the US envoy on climate change, has said he's seeking a
bilateral discussion solely on climate with China, Bordoff added.
"But it's less clear to me that China is interested," Bordoff said.
"The Chinese foreign minister said on the record that they would
not compartmentalize."
Tensions could rise further as the Biden administration rolls
out programs to strengthen US industrial competitiveness against
China, Bordoff said. Biden announced plans to open overseas offices
of the US International Development Finance Corporation for the
first time, which Bordoff said is an example of how, "if you're
pushing back on the China International Development Cooperation
Agency, you can't push back with nothing."
US industrial policy will seek to capture a greater share of the
rapid growth in energy demand in Asia, Bordoff said. What is yet to
be determined is if the administration will invest in natural gas
production and infrastructure in Asia, he said.
US relations with Russia add yet another wrench to the
compartmentalization strategy, added Stent. On the one hand, the
five-year extension of the START nuclear weapons treaty, announced
in February, is a positive sign. On the other hand, the divide is
deep on many issues, she said.
In some ways, American and Chinese interests line up together
against Russia, but in other ways Russia and China are much closer,
Stent explained. "It's an illusion that the US could pry Russia
away from a relationship that is getting closer to China," she
concluded.
However, the three panelists agreed that the need for carbon
emissions to be reduced is understood in leadership circles in both
China and Russia. "… China recognizes climate change - lots of
scientists and government leaders take seriously the challenge ---
and knows we must work together to solve it. We might be able to
say it's in our mutual interest to work together on this one
particular issue," Bordoff said.
As for Russia, Stent said it faces the challenge of maintaining
superpower status while the energy transition reduces demand for
its key exports. "It's not an economic superpower. It has a
per-capita GDP that's the size of Italy," Stent said. "If Russia
doesn't diversify and modernize its economy and think beyond
hydrocarbons that the world doesn't want to buy, it's going to be
harder to maintain superpower status."
