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A group funded by Cambridge University in the UK is warning that
countries must adopt net-negative rather than net-zero emissions
strategies.
The report by the Climate Crisis
Advisory Group (CCAG) comes two months out from the 2021 United
Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow at which
nations are due to strengthen their emissions-cutting pledges.
Over 100 countries have pledged to reach net zero, spurring
climate-friendly policies. The US pledged to reach net-zero GHGs by
2050 in April following similar pledges by countries including the
UK, South Korea, Japan, and China.
But the Cambridge group said net-zero promises were too weak as
current projections meant it was "inevitable that the world will
pass 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, and that every fraction of a
degree of additional warming will amplify the climate risks
humanity will face."
The group looked at current trends in emissions reduction and
mitigation, estimating the global average temperature was likely to
first breach 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels for at least
a month, but possibly an entire year prior to 2030.
"Following a pathway leading only to net zero by 2050 is now too
little too late," the report's authors wrote.
They concluded that even while countries aim to limit
temperature rises to 2 degrees C, the second-tier target within the
Paris Agreement, the consequences of exceeding 1.5 degrees C would
be "catastrophic."
All IHS Markit outlooks, including two that model the world
reaching net zero, come to a similar conclusion: A breach of 1.5
degrees C is likely by midcentury. IHS Markit scenarios imply a
range of temperature increases of between 1.9 degrees C and 3.1
degrees C by 2100.
IHS Markit net-zero cases, however, foresaw positive outcomes of
1.5 degrees C and 1.6 degrees C by 2100 provided that there were
net-negative global GHG emissions between 2050 and 2100.
The university-backed group proposed that countries pledge to
reach net zero sooner than the typical 2050 deadline, so that
afterwards they can turn their attention to carbon-negative
technologies and give developing states more time to reduce
emissions.
Carbon negative solutions could include Direct Air Capture
technologies, currently at a development stage, as well as
nature-based solutions, such as planting trees. GHG reduction
technologies using marine kelp, sea grasses, and seaweed farms were
"especially encouraging," according to the report's authors.
Of these options, tree planting and nature-based solutions were
more popular because they had greater public acceptance, the report
found.
However, the report recommended only supporting technologies
capable of capturing and sequestering at least 1 billion metric
tons per year of CO2 per project.
The authors also suggested research was required on ways to keep
glaciers and ice caps frozen in order to correct weather patterns,
slow down ice-melt, stabilize sea levels, and break global warming
feedback loops.
"Climate repair requires removing GHGs from the atmosphere at
scale and buying time by rapidly researching ways to protect the
melting of the polar ice caps," they said.
Finally, the report called for more funding to be poured into
research on carbon-negative technologies, such as those proposed by
the Mission Innovation initiative launched in 2015 by Bill
Gates.
The initiative aims to secure funds for states' cleantech
projects from the Breakthrough Energy Coalition investor group,
which includes billionaires like Jeff Bezos, Mike Bloomberg, and
George Soros.
Posted 01 September 2021 by Cristina Brooks, Senior Journalist, Climate and Sustainability
